Over the past few weeks, North Korea's spat of belligerence towards South Korea, the US, and its allies has made the American populace nervous. The American media has been riddled with stories with questions that can not be answered with certainty. Is this new rhetoric the product of an inexperienced and unpredictable new North Korean leader? Will war break out over the Korean Peninsula? And most importantly, will North Korea attempt to strike the US with a nuclear weapon? In truth the threat from North Korea, while tangible, is far from meeting reality. North Korea is like any other county. It desires respect from the global community, and will take action when it sees necessary.
Unfortunately for North Korea, due to its isolated diplomatic position, it can only rely on sticks as opposed to carrots. This is merely a presentation from a regime desperate for international legitimacy. Who knows. Maybe Kim Jong Un is seeking to steal the spotlight from the South's cultural sensation Gangnam Style. There is only question that truly matters in the media circus over this event. What does China think?
China is arguably North Korea's only ally. The two countries share an ideological (albeit artificial on the Chinese side) tie. Both nations are also bound together due to the Cold War experience. Apart from the bond of Communist heritage, both nations have the same geopolitical objective; keep the US out of the region, and the Chinese leadership is quick to discern that North Korean sabor rattling produces the very opposite trend.
Over the past few years, China has noted a gradual increase of American presence in the region. President Obama's Asia pivot has rendered Chinese American relations awkward. While President Obama has framed this move as economic and military engagement with Asia, in particular China, Chinese officials perceive this engagement as a hidden agenda to diplomatically and militarily encircle China. North Korea's recent threat of a nuclear launch in the near future has understandably caused alarm on the American side of the Pacific. In the midst of such uncertainty, Secretary of State Chuck Hagel has recently announced missile deployments to the US territory of Guam. This doesn't please the Chinese, who desire an Asia with minimal US intervention. The Chinese government recognizes that North Korean belligerence leads to a stronger American military presence, but North Korea sees this as a away to show the world it means business. Obviously there is a conflict of interest.
To the dismay of Beijing, newly elected conservative governments in Tokyo and Seoul have welcomed a stronger US military presence in the Asia Pacific. It's not surprising that shortly following the announcement of the Asia pivot initiative, old territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas began to flare up between China and Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines. Since I have been in China, a major diplomatic crisis opened up over the Diaoyu Islands causing protests in several Chinese cities, some of which violently attacked Japanese businesses and Chinese owned Japanese eateries. Given the amount of diplomatic problems that China has to deal with already, the last thing China wants is war to erupt over the Korean peninsula.
But most importantly, North Korea's threat of war undermines the role that China perceives of itself in Asia. Throughout its long history, China has served as the Middle Kingdom, the center of culture, economic growth, and political stability in Asia. After 150 years of humiliation and failure, the Middle Kingdom has returned to Asia. China is now the largest economic force in the region, and its wealth has trickled down to poorer Asian countries thereby creating modern tributary states. Laos and Cambodia in particular fit this description. In some ways, China's relationship with North Korea reflects that of a tributary state, a buffer state that answers to the higher authority of Beijing and pays tribute in the form of diplomatic support. However, North Korea's sudden threat of war appears to reverse the relationship. Despite Beijing's desire for a peaceful harmonious region, North Korea will act with autonomy to get what it wants. In doing so, North Korea has made China diplomatically lose face. In many ways, North Korea's actions are as much a message to China as it is to America.
Still, despite China's disapproval of North Korea's belligerence, it will continue to respond mildly, stating that China simply supports a peaceful non-nuclear Korean peninsula. This fits the pattern of China's 5 Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, which stresses sovereignty over intervention and mutual respect over moral criticism. One thing is certain, the Chinese want to avoid an armed conflict sparked by North Korea as much as we do. Allowing such an event to conspire would be the biggest loss of face since the 1842 Opium Wars.
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