China has certainly proved to be a nation worthy of global integration and respect in the modern era. It is a multicultural nation with 55 ethnic minorities. It's cities are teeming with cosmopolitan cells complete with McDonalds, KFC, Dairy Queen, Walmart, and Star Bucks. It is a country with well established expat communities from Europe, Africa, the Middle East, North America, and other parts of Asia. It is a country that attracts millions of foreign tourists to its numerous natural wonders and UNESCO Heritage sites.
China's state capitalist model has successfully attracted the world's largest Multi National firms which have invested billions of dollars into the Chinese economy. Such economic activity has lifted millions out of poverty and has been highlighted as a successful model for other developing nations to emulate.
Chinese soft power is expanding through film, art, gymnastics, athletics, and opera. The most effective soft power tool Beijing has employed is China's numerous worldwide Confucian Institutes. Confucian Institutes not only provide Mandarin training but also craft a positive image of China abroad.
China has already hosted several large and impressive international events including the Beijing UN Conference on Women in 1995, the Beijing Summer Olympics in 2008, the Shanghai World Expo in 2010, and the Asia Games in Guangzhou 2010. Such events were signified by globally inclusive mottos such as One World One Dream and Thrilling Games Harmonious Asia. We also must not forget China's permanent seat of the UN Security Council and membership in the G20.
China is certainly one of the most powerful nations in the 21st century and several have predicted that China will dominate the world in the near future. In fact, it has been suggested that geopolitical environment is experiencing a power polarity shift from the US to China. Whether such claims are accurate or premature, the question must be asked, what would the world be like under Chinese hegemony? More importantly, is China capable of holding such a power position?
In order to answer these questions we must look to China's history as a civilization. For a majority of its existence, China has been the central pillar of power and stability in Asia. The Mandarin word for China (Zhong Guo) literally means Middle Kingdom. The Chinese capital, whether it was Chang'An, Kaifeng, Hangzhou, or Beijing served as the central authority of all domains under Chinese occupation. Furthermore, the Chinese emperor was given the title "son under heaven." This meant that China was the center of civilization in the known world. All foreign lands outside Chinese domain were considered barbarian and uncivilized in the Chinese world view.
During the reign of the Yongle Emperor in the Ming Dynasty, maritime voyages led by the infamous eunuch Zheng He yielded annual tributes to Beijing from kingdoms as far as the shores of Malay and Sri Lanka. How peaceful or belligerent these voyages were we may never know. However, we do know that after reaching the shores of East Africa, the voyages ceased. Instead of conquering the world while China had the opportunity, the Ming saw no need to. As the center of civilization, the Middle Kingdom was all that the Ming desired to control. To proceed forward in their eyes would be a waste of state funds.
I see this as an indication of how China would act as a unipolar power. Chinese people themselves are enthusiastic about their county's global rise. But when asked about the spread of Chinese influence in an imperialist sense, the Chinese don't believe that their government would militarily occupy other countries or provoke armed conflict through offensive posturing. Furthermore, China's leadership has not indicated any enthusiasm for a greater military evolvement on the international stage. China abstained from the UN Security Council vote on a No Fly Zone over Libya and Chinese diplomats have cautioned against NATO military action in Syria. China's official foreign policy doctrine upholds principles of mutual respect for sovereignty, nonaggression, equality, and non-interference as opposed to a universality of human rights or Wilsonian liberalism as American foreign policy currently employs.
The only reason China would use military hard power is in defense of its claims over maritime territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas. These are territories considered as part of China historically. Such conflicts fit into the narrative of China as the Middle Kingdom (hegemon). These territorial disputes merely reflect that China has returned to its previous status as Asia's central power holder.
Overall, China's influence in the world is almost exclusively economic. China has invested heavily in mineral extraction in Australia, Africa, and the Middle East as well as agricultural resources in Latin America. China has also invested in foreign infrastructure projects such as highways in Kenya, hydroelectric dams in Laos, and railroads in Angola. A Chinese hegemony would probably employ economic influence to manipulate international affairs in the shadows, as opposed to the pomp and circumstance of the US armed forces. What this means is that the international stage would lack a unipolar military force to ensure the security of free trade and basic human rights.
This is why I am skeptical of a Chinese hegemony in the future. Outside of East Asia, China has shown no interest in engaging its military resources in order to ensure the security of the overall geopolitical environment. That being said, only about a century ago Americans had no interest in getting involved with Europe's problems. In fact, Americans preferred to remain isolated. So who knows where China will be in 50 years. But for now, China will continue to address domestic problems before it takes on Atlas's burden.
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