Well it's finally over. The 7 month political menstruation period which occurs every four years we call the presidential election will not hover over the American citizenry like a screeching harpy again until 2016. Of course, the media will continue to obsess over the possible list of candidates for 2016, but such foresight only serves as poor substitute for sensational media dope the American punditry has been smoking over the past year. In reality, the only subjects worth discussion are those observed through hindsight. What did Tuesday mean for the Democrats and for the Republicans, and what does it reflect upon the current and future American electorate?
At this point, Democrats should be elated that a new American electorate is shifting in favor of a center left majority coalition. Women, African Americans, Hispanics, and the Youth vote were clearly the winning strategy for President Obama and Democrats in the Senate during this election. The former white male majority who voted consistently Republican in this election, with a significant margin favoring Mitt Romney at 52%-45%, failed to bring Mitt Romney to the White House. Hispanics are now a Democratic voting block, which provided blue victories in Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado. Furthermore, demographic shifts in the southwest should improve the chances for Democrats to take Arizona and Texas in future presidential elections, thereby robbing Republicans of their electoral foundation.
Democrats need to reflect upon this victory, and materialize the values Hispanic voters supported them on in the form of policy. As healthcare was in his first term, President Obama must make comprehensive immigration reform the primary goal in his second term, thereby crystalizing Hispanic support for Democrats for a generation to come. Women will continue to be a valuable component in the coalition as long as Republicans continue to support a medieval approach to women's reproductive rights and employment opportunity. The binder of women ended up slapping the Republican Party in the face during the 2012 election.
As for the young vote, these past two elections cannot be simply discounted as a two time blip concerning the trend of support Democrats receive from younger voters. Younger voters participated in 2012 election with the same level of enthusiasm as they did in the last election. The youth of 2012 generally care more about politics than generations before them disenchanted by the world of politics due to the turbulent Vietnam-Watergate era. Young voters are morally and politically invested in such issues as women's rights, marriage equality, job growth, and Climate Change, and they are far more likely to be liberal than conservative concerning these subjects. Young voters are not as likely to take part in a religious institution and are more apt to follow a personal spiritual journey. Furthermore, it is evident from the high support Obama received among 24-40 year olds that age did not make this generation more conservative been 2008-2012 despite the disappointments many of them had with Obama's first term. Therefore, the liberal social trends of the current generation are likely to continue as this generation gets older.
Social Conservatives should be the most alarmed by this past election. Minnesota's anti-marriage equality initiative failed as did the pro-life referendum in Florida to ban the use of public revenue to pay for abortion. At the same time, a sweep of gay marriage referendums passed in three states, Maryland, Maine, and Washington. Additionally Marijuana Legalization passed in Colorado and Washington. Tuesday represented a nationwide rejection of the social conservative platform, a strong message that would behoove the Republican Party to take into consideration. Social conservatives are slowly becoming a retirement home waiting to join that big evangelical breakfast buffet in the sky. For the survival of the Republican Party, it is essential that conservatives reflect upon the last election.
A large portion of young conservatives, while no fan of Obama, recognize Climate Change, and are socially liberal. In the eyes of young conservatives, who identify with libertarians as opposed to Republicans, the social conservative agenda and the Obama Administration are both fruits from the same sinful tree of Big Government. For young conservatives, Mitt Romney can only serve as a somewhat less terrible alternative to Obama as opposed to an inspiring statesman like Ron Paul or Gary Johnson. Therefore, its easy to see why young voters overwhelmingly vote for the Democrats. Social Conservatives also helped to tip the women's vote in favor of Obama with outrageous statements from Senate candidates such as Todd Akin and Richard Murdock. The Republican Party must dump the pro life movement's crusade to reverse Roe vs Wade if it wants to win the support of female voters. Of course, such a change in mindset is nearly impossible for those who think through the lenses of a 1952 social construct. With hispanics, the rift with the Republican party is still repairable, but it will require a good portion of congressional Republicans to come on board with a compromised immigration reform bill that includes amnesty.
The worst possible strategy the Republicans can make is the one employed over the past two years; obstruction and ideological extremism. According to several conservative pundits, President Obama's reelection is the result of a double conspiracy ignited by the media and Hurricane Sandy, which leads me to believe that Republicans have not learned their lesson. Unlike what Republicans predicted, their was no big victory that would spark the 2nd American conservative renaissance in 2013. In fact, it was one big sweep for the more moderate and compromising Democrats who not only took every swing state and retained the majority in the Senate but gained seats in the currently GOP controlled House. There was a mandate in this election, a mandate for compromise, and a mandate for a more moderate Republican Party.
In my assessment, Obama will be far more assertive in pushing his agenda during his second term. An obstructionist GOP will be unable to hold back President Obama as effectively as they have the past two years, and the image of the white aging party of NO will continue to saturate the Republican brand if they chose to continue to do so. This will erode the GOP's ability to hold on to the House and 2014 and will make it certain that a Democratic president will succeed President Obama in 2016, especially if Hillary Clinton runs.
On CNN, former Utah Governor John Huntsmen provided the best critique for his party that I have heard during the post election analysis. Huntsmen submitted that the party must refocus its efforts on promoting solutions for the 21st Century rather than lecturing Americans about moral purity and so called shared values. This is not a country where ideas and culture are homogenous. To express such a fallacy is equivalent to a concession to failure, and that's what this election meant for the Republican Party. All the Super PAC money, Karl Roves, and Sheldon Adlesons can't erase that reality. The people have spoken, and they have called for change. Change in government, and change within the Republican Party.
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